TRAINING GW is peak power draw of the cluster used to train the flagship model, averaged over the training run. Where the lab doesn't disclose, we back-compute from GPU count × TDP × utilization (typ. 0.4–0.6).
INFERENCE GW is steady-state serving power for the model's primary public product. This is harder to pin down — most figures are estimates derived from disclosed query-volume × per-query Wh.
PROJECTIONS use publicly-announced datacenter capacity (Stargate, Hyperion, Colossus 2, etc.) scaled to when the next flagship model is expected. Anything after 2027 is noted as speculative.
Sources: Epoch AI, IEA Electricity 2024, OpenAI's Stargate announcements, Meta capex calls, xAI public statements, MIT Technology Review, Data Center Frontier, IEEE Spectrum, SemiAnalysis. Error bars are wide — treat numbers as order-of-magnitude.